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Archive for July, 2007

Soufu wrote a post on Affiliate: a decent job for Aseans?

Suddenly I have a lot to say too!

You really think that it is easy to make money online? It seems to me that the only way to make money online, is to TEACH people how to make money online.

That’s the same as GOLD RUSH. 150 years ago, everyone thought that there were lots of gold beneath the land. So a lot of people rushed to dig and dig and dig. But they didn’t make any money because there isn’t even 0.01% of gold that they have imagined. They are just dreaming.

Guess who make the most money? The guy who sold these dreamers the digging tools (shovels, etc) and also Mr Levi Strauss, who sell them Levi’s Jeans!

Now the same thing is happening again. It’s really hard to dig for gold from the internet but is far more easy to sell the Shovel and Jeans to the greedy people that want to make money online!

There are thousands of online ebooks and courses sold online that teach you ‘How to make money online’.

Many so-called guru in Malaysia are giving seminars and workshops to those who want to learn how to make money online.

There is a Malaysian guy sending out SPAM email asking us to join his workshop for RM250 and he will teach us ‘How to rank #1 in Google!”. And that’s really a joke. If he can rank #1 for the word ‘Mortgage’ in Google, he will be an multi-millionaire. He don’t need to organize a workshop for RM250. I can instantly teach you how to rank #1 in Google. I will rank #1 for the keyword rankno1ingoogle in a few days because that keyword exist only once in the entire internet and that’s AhYap.com! Pay me RM250 please.

Ranking #1 in Google is not enough to make you money. You need to rank #1 for profitable keywords. Rank #1 for the keyword “Najib” won’t make you rich. You need to rank #1 for something like “credit card”. And if you can rank #1 for “credit card”, I will pay you RM25,000.

And there is a woman who called herself “The #1 Internet Marketing Coach”. Yucks. She called herself so because she said Google ranked her #1 for the keyword “Internet Marketing Coach”.

This really makes me laugh. Google ranks you #1 for the keyword “Internet Marketing Coach” only means you are #1 for that keyword in the search results and doesn’t mean you are the #1 Internet Marketing Coach. ^&%@##$@#%%

AhYap.com ranked #4 for the keyword ‘sohai’ so AhYap is the #4 Sohai in the world?!!! Wahahaha (maybe true).

But AhYap.com ranked #1 for the keyword ‘AhYap’ so I am the smartest AhYap in the world? Oh, I thought you say I am the #4 sohai just now?

And if she is so good, she should have ranked #1 for the keyword ‘Internet Marketing’, not ‘Internet Marketing Coach’. There are a lot of people search for ‘Internet Marketing’ but there is not much people search for ‘Internet Marketing Coach’. She did ranked #4 for ‘Internet Marketing’ if you search in Google but that’s because we are using a Malaysia IP. If you are looking at the US results, she is no where in the Top 100. Shame, shame. And I don’t think she knows how to make Google shows US results.

And her website has only a PageRank of 4. (PageRank is a score given by Google to grade a page with 10 being the highest)

Even AhYap as the #4 sohai in the world has PageRank of 3 while the #3 cibai in the world Mr Cibailang has a PageRank of 4 too! So cibailang is also as good as the “#1 Internet Marketing Coach”.

But she is really a RICH WOMAN! Because she is selling you the tools to make money online! She makes a lot of money by teaching you how to make money online!

And remember she doesn’t make those money online because she is organizing her seminars offline in her computer lab and advertising her tools and seminars on local newspaper, which are OFFLINE.

And why it works even she is not as good as soufulow when it comes to internet marketing? Because you only need to be in Standard 3 level to qualify teaching a kindergarden student (small baby). 99% people who want to make money online are internet marketing idiots. Probably don’t even have kindergraden level, just baby learning how to walk. If your internet marketing skill is at Standard 3, you can easily teach a kindergarden student. You don’t need to be a PHD in Internet Marketing.

Anyone wants to pay me RM250 for a 2-hour internet marketing seminar? I am happy to entertain as I believe I got Standard 4 in Internet Marketing. :)

The #4 Sohai In The World according to Google.

My blog slogan is “Better than reading newspaper”. I choose this slogan because I prefer to blog something that you don’t read on newspaper. It is not that “they don’t know” but they have a lot of limitations on what they can write.

Today topic is “Is There a Relationship Between The Police and The Reporters”. Do you think they have any relationship? Why when there is something happening, the reporters will know so fast?

There is a rape case in Ipoh few days ago (I am very sad that Ipoh is becoming Johor Bahru). And my question is, “Why the hell the reporter will know so fast about the case?”. Who is the one that is telling the reporter about the case?

Let us do some analysis. First, who know about the case?

1. The rapist - Oh, do you think it is the rapist that told the reporters?

2. The victim – Oh, do you want to tell the whole world that you are being raped?

3. The public helpers - Since usually the victim will be helped by some public (sent to hospital or police station). They might be informing the reporters. It is possible but if it is you and me, we will definitely feel sympathy to the victim. At most we will tell friends and families, but I don’t think we will call the reporters.

4. Doctors, Nurses and Hospital Staffs – I believe most doctors are professionals. But low-paid hospital staffs (counter clerk, ambulance drivers…) do have high possibilities in telling the reporters if they can get some ‘reward’ in return from the news media. However, most crimes don’t involved ‘hospital’ accept those that need body check out (like raping).

5. Police! Unless you don’t lodge a police report, police will know THE MOST THING regarding a case.

Now for your brain to think -

“Do you think reporters have special information linkage to polices?”.

“Do you think reporters are willing to pay polices some ‘gift’ on recurring basis so they will be informed on things. And extra ‘bonuses’ if the news is big enough?”.

“Do you think polices would like to get some extra ‘gift’ by disclosing information?”

“Do you think news media can survive without reliable source of information? Do you think they can survive if they are the last to know about something?”

Newspaper always say something like this, “The police didn’t confirm … (it is like this) … but according to reliable source, it is indeed …. (like this) …”. Like confirming the DNA of the three-year-old little girl Ying Ying recently. The police didn’t make an official statement that it is indeed the little girl but the media says, “According to reliable source…”

What is the reliable source? Why the hell they can’t tell us what is the ‘reliable source’? Media usually wants to tell us AS MUCH THING as they can. But why in the case they use the phase ‘reliable source’?

I didn’t make any statements here. These are all questions. Questions for you to think about.

Referring to the Ipoh case. Sinchew admit that they have been waiting in front of the victim house for 1 hour plus but no one returned. How the hell do they know the victim address?! Where do they ‘dig’ the information from? Some more, they know things like, “The rapist cover her eyes but didn’t tie her her hands and legs”. How the heck they can know such details without even seeing the victim?

Something to think about.

My mum and dad (and a lot of investors) will feel extremely nervous, when the stock they bought rise from $1 to $3.

What they are thinking is, “Should I sell! Should I take the profit? Will it rise more? What if I sell and it rise more? What if I didn’t sell and it drop back to $1?! Or $0.50!!!”

They scare that their profit will be vanished if they don’t sell now. Or even worst, lost their initial capital. They believe that they still haven’t really make the $2 until the sell. They feel that the $2 is in a risky position that can be gone if the price go down.

People get an idea of something by comparing it to something else. (remember my post on politicians play the compare game?) It is something similar.

What does 100kg means? It means nothing unless you know what context to compare it. When we are talking about human weight, we will need to compare 100kg with other human weights. In this context 100kg is someone with a FAT ass. 100kg is very heavy. But if we are talking about dinosaur, 100kg might just be its fat-little-dick (Oh!). 100kg become very little.

Now, when somebody bought a stock at $1 and he knows nothing about the underlying business, the only thing he can compare with is his buying price! So if it goes up to $5, he compare it to his buying price of $1 and think that his stock is very expensive now and he should consider selling. If it goes down to $0.50, he also compares to the $1 and feel that his stock has gone to hell.

If you do that, you have compare the price with the wrong thing. The whole context and perspective are wrong. For the very same stock, it can be very expensive when it is $1 and it can be extremely cheap when it is $10.

The right thing to compare is not your buying price or historical price. The right thing to compare is the EARNING of the business! How much you are willing to pay for a business depends on how much money the business is making (and will be making)!

Let’s say you own a petrol station and you want to sell it. Your petrol station will make a steady earning of $200,000 per year. How much do you want to sell it?

Will you sell it for $200,000? If you will, you need to jump off from KLCC. Your petrol station can make $200,000 per year and 5 years it will make $1 million and the money you can make is basically infinite and forever (unless your petrol station is hit by a meteor and exploded). It is a money printing machine. Only idiots (sohai in our language) and gamblers who owe money to Lim Goh Thong (the Boss of Genting Casino) will sell it at $100,000.

So what is the right price to sell? You are selling something that is depositing a fix amount of money to your bank account every year. To make sense, you need to sell it for a few times that earning. That means instead of waiting ‘slowly’ for $200,00 once a year, you are willing to sell it to somebody who will pay you in advance a few years of the future earnings. Say 5 years, it will be $1 million.

You receive $1 million in your bank account today, 5 years of your future earning. By taking that money in advance, you give away your rights to the petrol station. The business has nothing to do with you anymore no matter how much it make in the future. The buyer, on the other hand has taken the company from you. He will be able to collect back his initial investment capital of $1 million 5 years from today. After that, he will be making real money that is not his initial capital.

How many times the earning you are willing to pay create a ratio called the Price Per Earning Ratio. We called it the PE ratio. In the petrol station case, the earning is $200,000 and the price sold is $1 million. So the PE ratio is 5.

PE is very meaningful when we are referring to a healthy business that is consistently profitable, such as Public Bank, Digi, etc. They all have stable earnings (the E) and a quoted price everyday from the stock market (the P). With the E and the P, we can easily get the PE, that’s how many times people are currently willing to pay for the earning.

Today DIGI’s PE is 21 while PBBANK’s PE is 19. So if you buy DIGI today, you are willing to pay 21 times the current earning of DIGI.

Let’s go back to what I am talking at the beginning. Why people are comparing to the wrong thing and why $1 can be more expensive than $10.

From our very first example, you pay $1 for a stock and 3 years later it goes to $3. You become very nervous and keep asking yourself, “Should I sell? Should I sell?”.

Read This Carefully -> You don’t compare the current price with your buying price or historical price because the situation of the business today is very different than the situation 3 years ago!

When you bought at $1, the company might be making 10 cents per share (PE 10). 3 years later, the business grows and it might be making 30 cents now. The PE is still 10! So why do you need to be so worry about your $1 investment that now become $3? The value of the company has increase the same time when the price of your stock increase. Both has increased equally in this scenario.

REPEAT -> Compare the current price to the earning, not your buying price or historical price!

Let’s make it more interesting. Instead of making 30 cents per share, the company is now making 60 cents! The PE is now 5! It is actually cheaper at $3 now when it was $1! Why? Because when you bought it, you were paying $1 for $0.10 (PE 10). If you buy it now, you are paying $3 for $0.60 or $1 for $0.20 (PE 5)! You are getting a bargain here.

Why the heck do you need to sell it if you can see the correct picture here? If you have money, you should actually BUY MORE! If you are comparing to your $1 entry price, you will think that I am crazy if I ask you to buy more. But after you know you need to compare the price to earning (the right thing) instead of your buying price (the wrong thing), BUY MORE make a lot of sense now!

Let’s stuck more knowledge into your brain.

A stock that is selling at ALL TIME HIGH doesn’t mean it is expensive. A stock that is selling at ALL TIME LOW doesn’t mean it is cheap. When you are using the word ‘ALL TIME’ you are comparing it with the historical prices. Mistake. A company that is selling at ALL TIME HIGH might also have Earnings at RECORD HIGH so it justify the price. In our previous example when the stock is selling for all time high of $3 but is making a record earning of $0.60 per share, it has actually become cheaper (not more expensive!).

Understanding this let you know that buying at all time high is not stupid and is not risky (given that you have do your homework). It also prevents you from jumping into a sinking Titanic when it is all time low (MEGAN!). Remember, all time high doesn’t mean it is expensive. All time low doesn’t mean it is cheap. You need to compare it to the underlying value, not the historical price (also known as the chart!).

So the answer to the question. “If You Buy a Stock at $1 and It Rises To $3, What Do You Do? Sell? Hold? Buy More?!” should be very clear to you now. What price you buy, has nothing to do with your decision. It is the current earnings and future earnings that are the primary factor to consider.

I think this is a very important thing to know if you want to invest in the stock market. If you know this, I assured you that you are already better than 80% of other investors (They should be called speculators). Uncle aunties who didn’t know this is acceptable. But there are a lot of educated people who work as knowledge workers who didn’t know this at all! That is very disappointed.

Knowing the idea of PE is a good start to your investing journey. But don’t expect it is that simple. What I have explained here is an extremely simplified version. There are still a lot of things that you need to know. For example, if the E of the PE is fake, PE is meaningless. For example, Megan has a PE of 2 when it is selling at $0.60. But later they find out the E is fake. There is no E! It is negative! You can’t even get a PE from a negative E. The same goes to Tranmil that has a fake E. PE become meaningless.

(Megan was selling for only $0.60 for a long time, it is so cheap because PE is only 2! But it ends up that the E is actually fake! Hokkien will say, “Jia Lat Lor!”)

There are a lot more. For example, a construction company can make a lot of money when doing a big project such as building the KLIA. The company can make nothing after that. So the E can be very big when they are working on the project but 0 when the project is over. PE become unreliable if the future is unclear.

As a conclusion, comparing the current price with your buying price or historical price is wrong because businesses do change with time. Current earnings and the future earnings are what you need to compare it with.

This is oversimplified explanation but still serve as a good standing point. The current averaged PE for all the KLSE stocks is around 17.

Next post I will tell you why some company sell more than averaged PE and why some sell for less.

There is no such thing as a ‘perfect world’! Because for 6 billion people who live on this fucking earth, all of them have a different definition of PERFECT. And all of them significantly contradict with each other! Your definition of perfect is different than my definition of perfect. Mahathir Mohamad‘s definition of perfect is different than Abdullah Badawi‘s definition of perfect! George Bush‘s definition of perfect is different than Osama Bin Laden‘s definition of perfect. How the world can be ‘perfect’ when everyone wants something different?

For an example, I am a non smoker and my ‘perfect world’ is that NO ONE ever smoke!

But for a smoker, his ‘perfect world’ would be something like

1. He can smoke anytime and anywhere in the world and not just the GSC and KLCC toilets (and Parliament House if he is a Malaysia politician).

2. Government will not tax on cigarettes but instead subsidizes them like they subsidize our petrol.

3. Smoking will never cause Lung Cancer but will actually enhance his health and sex power (plus some penis enlargement effect).

How the world can be ‘perfect’ when non-smokers perfect world is a world with no one smoking while smokers perfect world would be to able to smoke anywhere? Both of them will keep on fighting for their own ‘perfect’ world, according to their own definition!

Both sides will sing the same song ” … We will … keep on FIGHTiiinnng till the end… We are the Champion! … We are the Champion! …”

Each religion in this world has their own definition of ‘perfect’. Muslims say that there is only 1 God who created the world and His name is Allah. Christians say that there is also 1 God who created the world but His name IS NOT Allah. Then Hinduism say that there are a lot of Gods who created the world together. But Buddhists say that there in No God who created this world.

Muslims perfect world would be everyone’s a Muslim and follows Islam’s teachings. Christian’s perfect world would be everyone’s Christian and follows Christian’s teachings. So as Hinduism and Buddhists. How the fuck can the world be ‘perfect’ when everyone has different definition for ‘perfect’? [And also definition of ‘sin‘ when it comes to religion]

More examples -

When you want to buy something, you want to buy at the cheapest price. But the guy who sell you want to sell you the HIGHEST price!

When you are driving down the traffic light, you wish that the light is GREEN for you. Put it another way, you selfish little bastard wish the other sides got RED! But the drivers at the other sides wish that you got the RED instead so he can have the GREEN! (The other side are also selfish bastards)

51% of Americans voted for George Bush so he is now the President of America. 49% voted against him! See how contradict they think regarding the ‘perfect’ America.

A chicken (real chicken, not the fake chicken) perfect world would be a world that human don’t eat chicken BUT the human perfect world be more KFCs and Ramlee Burgers.

Wow! I never thought of that until now. If chickens and animals also have their own definitions of perfect world, there will be 6 billion people + XXX billion animals that all have different definitions for a perfect world. See how fucked up it can be.

Cow perfect world would be that no human drink cow’s milk and girls don’t like cheese cake while human perfect world would be a cow with unlimited milk.

Girls perfect world is a lot of shoes and handbags. Guys perfect world is no need to go shopping with his girlfriend and suffocate inside the extremely crowded Vinci Shop.

I hope that my mum will take care of her health by taking control of her diet. But she prefer her curry mee and nasi lemak than her health.

I wish that “Lost” (the movie series) will have Lost Season 4, Season 5 and Season 6 Finale right now so I don’t need to wait for 16 episodes in 2008, 16 in 2009 and 16 in 2010! But the producers prefer to do it the slow way to make more money.

Going more sarcastic (but very true). A Johor girl hopes that there are no rapist in Johor but a Johor rapist hopes that he can rape anyone he wants without being caught by the police! [Note: ‘rape anyone he wants’ not ‘rape everyone‘ because even rapists has their own definition of ‘perfect’ victims. Different rapists have different taste. Some like girls wearing nurse uniform because he watches too many Japanese AV while some like smaller size girls because he consciously or subconsciously knows that he can control her easier than a BIG one. It is very shameful if you try to rape someone and end up being ‘raped’ back with a stick on your back hole and your balls broken.]

Americans hope that all terrorists are dead while terrorists hope that all Americans are dead.

Everyone wants to be the richest man in the world but there is only 1 richest man in the world at anytime out of the 6 billion people in this world.

Streamyx users want fast torrents download but TM Net hopes their customers don’t know how to use torrent so they can save a lot of money in bandwidth.

People hope that they can go to Heaven but no one wants to die. [off topic]

Every single “want” that we want, there will always be someone in this world that don’t want it. And for every single “don’t want” that we don’t want, there will always be someone in this world that want it. How the fuck can be world be perfect?

So how do we make this world a ‘better’ world when what I want is not want you want? How to live in this world that everyone has a different definition of ‘perfect’?

Important Question: “How can we live happily in this world?”

Since you know someone can be 180 degrees different that you. Don’t INSIST on things to be the way you want it to be. Flexible with the things you don’t like. Flexible with the things that contradict with your perfect definition.

We need to enlarge our heart so BIG that it RESPECTS everything and ACCEPTS everything. It respects everything that we don’t like and it accepts everything that is contradict with our perfect definition.

It is OK if the guy in front of you drive slow. It is OK if your neighbor is a Muslim while you are a Christian (or anyway round). It is OK if someone says you are stupid or talk bad about you. More sarcastically, it is OK if someone wants to kill you. Although not logical, but imagine you really allow people to kill you and you won’t feel angry, how happy can you be while you are living? The point is to see how much space you are going to give to people that are different than you. How much can you tolerate. [If you are a Muslim, can you tolerate people burning Al-Quran in front of you? If you are a Christian, can you tolerate someone burning Jesus picture in front of you? Wars always started because they can’t tolerate these. If you really stick to your religion, why do you need to feel angry with those. You should have known very clearly that they will go to Hell when they die. God will do his job.]

I am not telling you to let a rapist rape you tomorrow and let a terrorist kill you tomorrow. I am telling you that if you can accept those things, your happiness in this world will be the maximum. People at this level can be happy even other people make them suffer. Maybe we don’t need to get to the extreme, maybe half? Many of us live far from it. Can’t even tolerate little thing like a ‘look’ from a stranger or a horn from the back driver. News like the Korean student got beaten to death by 2 Malaysians is a good example.

The less definitions you have on how the perfect world should be and the less you INSIST on things to be some way, the more happy you will be living in this never-can-be-perfect world.

When one day your definition of perfect become nil (zero), that’s the day you live in the perfect world. By then you will be happy and satisfy with everything. No one can ever pissed you off even if they cut off your legs and hands and put into the refrigerator. This is going too far, but that’s the correct direction. If you can reach half way, you are doing extremely well.

Your happiness doesn’t require any requirements and criteria. You no longer need things and people to be the way you want them to be. You don’t need the world to change a thing before you can be happy!

Enjoy your life!

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